The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive 10-point favorites in Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on Monday, starting at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV, and MAX.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Predictions for Monday
Our computer projection model for this contest calls for a final tally of Thunder 123, Nuggets 109.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-450)
- Total Pick: Over 226.5 (computer predicts 231.6 points)
- Pick ATS: Thunder (-10)
Recent Thunder vs. Nuggets Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10/2025 | Thunder | -8.5 | 240.5 | -403 | +315 | 140-127 DEN |
| 3/9/2025 | Thunder | -7.5 | 243.5 | -311 | +249 | 127-103 OKC |
| 11/6/2024 | Thunder | -7 | 224.5 | -256 | +215 | 124-122 DEN |
| 10/24/2024 | Nuggets | -2 | 228.5 | -134 | +113 | 102-87 OKC |
| 1/31/2024 | Thunder | -5.5 | 223 | -221 | +180 | 105-100 OKC |
| 12/29/2023 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 237.5 | -125 | +105 | 119-93 OKC |
| 12/16/2023 | Nuggets | -5 | 237.5 | -206 | +171 | 118-117 OKC |
| 10/29/2023 | Nuggets | -3.5 | 230.5 | -163 | +139 | 128-95 DEN |
Thunder 2024-25 Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City's ATS record is 54-26-2 this season.
- The Thunder are 23-11-1 against the spread when favored by 10 points or more this season.
- Out of Oklahoma City's 82 games with a set total, 46 have hit the over (56.1%).
- The Thunder have won 66, or 83.5%, of the 79 games they've played as favorites this season.
- Oklahoma City has a record of 32-4, a 88.9% win rate, when it's favored by -450 or more by sportsbooks this season.
Nuggets 2024-25 Betting Trends
- Denver has a 38-44-0 record against the spread this year.
- The Nuggets are a perfect 1-0 against the spread when an underdog by 10 points or more this year.
- In Denver's 82 games with a set total, 49 have hit the over (59.8%).
- The Nuggets have won 10 of the 20 games they were listed as the moneyline underdog this season (50%).
- Denver has played as a moneyline underdog of +347 or longer in just one game this season, which it won.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Ousmane Dieng: Day-To-Day (Calf),
Nikola Topic: Out For Season (Acl)
Nuggets
Nuggets:
DaRon Holmes: Out For Season (Achilles)
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Monday, May 5, 2025
- Game time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: TNT, truTV, and MAX
- Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Arena: Paycom Center
- Live stream: Watch this match on Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
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